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synth2 cigsale lnincome age15to24 retprice beer /// cigsale(1980) cigsale(1975), /// trunit(3) trperiod(1989) xperiod(1980(1)1984) /// nested placebo(period(1985)) Results In-time placebo test (fake treatment at 1985): Time | Actual Outcome Synthetic Outcome Treatment Effect 1985 | 102.8000 106.1262 -3.3262 1986 | 99.7000 103.2850 -3.5850 1987 | 97.5000 106.1524 -8.6524 1988 | 90.1000 98.4873 -8.3873 Real treatment period (1989-2000): 1989 | 82.4000 96.5237 -14.1237 1994 | 58.6000 77.9078 -19.3078 2000 | 41.6000 67.1861 -25.5861 During the fake treatment period (19851988), the estimated effects range from -3.3 to -8.7 packs substantially smaller than the post-1989 effects of -14.1 to -25.6 packs

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